At present, the upstream calcium carbide supply is sufficient, PVC social inventory is high, terminal demand is difficult to improve. Even into the maintenance season, PVC market oversupply problem is difficult to alleviate.

Cost end difficult to boost

During the Qingming period, the highway on the transport of hazardous chemicals control, affecting the supply of calcium carbide, which makes the inventory of calcium carbide enterprises increased slightly, but the overall impact on the supply and demand of calcium carbide is limited. At present, the domestic supply of calcium carbide is sufficient, affected by the downstream PVC maintenance expectations, some of the recent calcium carbide production enterprises to reduce the volume of the way to reduce inventory, in order to cope with the late consumption off-season. Affected by the slight drop in the price of calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide production enterprises have turned from profit to loss. At present, the loss is about 40 yuan/ton, but it is far from reaching the state that enterprises can not afford. Therefore, the short-term domestic calcium carbide supply sufficient state is difficult to change.

Since March, domestic PVC in stock prices have continued to fall, and the decline is greater than the downward shift of the cost center of gravity, which makes the losses of domestic PVC manufacturers slightly expanded. Up to now, the average loss of domestic calcium carbide PVC production enterprises is 310 yuan/ton; the average loss of ethylene PVC production enterprises is 220 yuan/ton. However, although the losses of domestic PVC production enterprises have expanded, the operating load of PVC plants is relatively stable. Since 2024, the domestic PVC plant operating load has been hovering at about 80% of the level, fluctuations are relatively limited, PVC weekly output has been maintained at about 450000 tons. After the Qingming Festival, as the temperature warms up, the chlor-alkali industry begins to enter the annual routine maintenance period, and some devices even have to take a month off. In this case, the late domestic PVC start load has a decline in expectations.

In addition to high supply-side construction, high inventories are also a major factor in suppressing PVC prices. Relevant data show that so far, the domestic PVC social inventory is 604700 tons, up 16.15 percent year-on-year. Among them, East China was 529700 tons, up 37.02 percent year-on-year, while South China was 75000 tons, down 44.03 percent year-on-year. At present, the domestic PVC social inventory is significantly higher than the level of the same period in previous years, indicating that the overall supply of PVC industry is more serious, has been in the stage of accumulation.

Weak downstream consumption

PVC downstream real estate industry is still in a weak state, January-February real estate investment fell 9% year-on-year, completion and other data also performed poorly. Pipe, some large products enterprises due to the lack of terminal orders, inventory continued to rise, forcing enterprises to reduce negative. In terms of profiles, enterprises are currently starting at 30% to 60%, a slight decrease from the previous period. Some enterprises take a short vacation during the Qingming Festival. PVC soft products, including cables, films, etc., are performing well, and the current start is about 80%, but the proportion of PVC downstream is low, so it is difficult to change the current situation of weak PVC terminal consumption.

In overseas markets, in recent years, domestic PVC exports to India and PVC flooring exports to Europe and the United States are important sales channels for PVC. In the first quarter, China's PVC exports showed a downward trend due to weak foreign demand and light trading in the Ramadan market. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, domestic PVC exports totaled 406500 tons from January to February, down 101700 tons from the same period last year, or 25.02 percent from the same period last year. At present, India has a strong rigid demand for PVC in China. With the decline of domestic PVC prices, domestic export advantages will appear, so PVC exports are expected to pick up in the second quarter.

At present, the domestic PVC fundamentals are still not optimistic. First, the supply of calcium carbide is sufficient, the price of enterprises has been reduced recently, and the cost support has weakened. Second, although domestic PVC production enterprises enter the maintenance season and the start-up is expected to fall, the PVC inventory is high and the market supply pressure is still high. Third, the main terminal real estate industry of PVC is weak. Even if the relatively small soft products perform well and the export is expected to pick up later, the overall demand for PVC is difficult to improve essentially. Based on the above judgment, PVC prices are expected to fall further, focusing on 5750 yuan/ton support, if the downward formation of an effective breakthrough, then back to this line to establish an empty single. (Author unit: Zhongyuan Futures)